The Enclave - Overview of Phases

Unsure if this is the right post to quote, but iirc there was a dev post which said possession of Thargoid items didn't affect hyperdiction chances.
IIRC I think this refers to carrying meta alloys in the hope of increasing the chance of hyperdiction, which some players were trying and the devs said it made no difference.

What we don't know is if having handled them or Thargoid sensors etc at some point makes you more vulnerable to hyperdictions thereafter. And it may be that any test will still be inconclusive.
 
IIRC I think this refers to carrying meta alloys in the hope of increasing the chance of hyperdiction, which some players were trying and the devs said it made no difference.

What we don't know is if having handled them or Thargoid sensors etc at some point makes you more vulnerable to hyperdictions thereafter. And it may be that any test will still be inconclusive.
I thought the original dev post related to anything, not just meta alloys... either way... a lot of discussion and thoerycrafting went on about this over on the alien forums in the stickies... might be worth having a trawl through there.

I won't get in the way of people sciencing... but i have distinct memories that the chance of hyperdiction is mostly just random... couldn't point to anything specifically supporting that but yeah... highly recommend checking out those stickies first (yes; they are huge)
 
I thought the original dev post related to anything, not just meta alloys... either way... a lot of discussion and thoerycrafting went on about this over on the alien forums in the stickies... might be worth having a trawl through there.

I won't get in the way of people sciencing... but i have distinct memories that the chance of hyperdiction is mostly just random... couldn't point to anything specifically supporting that but yeah... highly recommend checking out those stickies first (yes; they are huge)
Yes I don't expect anything conclusive if, for example, I don't get hyperdicted or I do but not as much as on my main account. This is just trying and seeing, beyond that I'm not reading into it and nor should anyone else. It's for interest only in the absence of concrete info.
 
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This is a proposition I'd be willing to help test too! The commander I've got in the WHN:

  • has shot and killed scouts
  • has fired on (but not killed) interceptors
  • has collected Thargoid materials (from scouts)
  • has collected MAs from barnacles
  • has collected Thargoid data
  • has visited Merope
  • has NOT collected Thargoid cargo (S/L/P)
  • has NOT visited a Thargoid surface structure
  • has never been hyperdicted anywhere
Now a hypothesis: Probability of hyperdiction is positively correlated with the number of Thargoid cargo a commander has ever handled.

Speculation: Hyperdiction was obviously added to the game before anyone had encountered a Thargoid, but after the then-Unknown Probes had been around for a while. To ensure that players interested in the alien storyline were the ones who encountered the aliens, the hypothesis statement was implemented. The developers have not revisited this code since then, so no other Thargoid interactions have been added to the hidden variable that tracks hyperdiction probability.

Sounds like the logical test would be for me to go acquire a few probes and see what happens. Alternately, I could visit a few sites without collecting any probes and see what happens.

When alien probes, artifacts came out - I was all about the lore and trying to find out what they were and also visited Barnacle sites. I was out to Maia often and even participated in a few 'UA bombs' back before FDev nerfed that threshold. Just the like, I transported Meta-alloys to fix friendly UA bombed stations. When Thargoids were first found I headed out to Maia and got my 1st hyper-interdiction before I even got there. So if there really is anything to it, all you had to touch was one or a combination of a UA, UP, or Meta-alloy - being out to Maia and/or visiting a barnacle site.

I have not visited a Thargoid site yet.
 
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I thought the original dev post related to anything, not just meta alloys... either way... a lot of discussion and thoerycrafting went on about this over on the alien forums in the stickies... might be worth having a trawl through there.

I won't get in the way of people sciencing... but i have distinct memories that the chance of hyperdiction is mostly just random... couldn't point to anything specifically supporting that but yeah... highly recommend checking out those stickies first (yes; they are huge)
The trouble is, based on the reports in this thread, the chances can't be just random. At this point I think we have enough reports from the likes of Factabulous of being hyperdicted frequently, and people like me who've made hundreds of jumps in the area with zero hyperdictions, that we can say with high confidence that our odds of hyperdiction are actually different. Which means there is some underlying property that affects the hyperdiction frequency a given commander experiences. It would be very interesting to know more about how that works.
 
The trouble is, based on the reports in this thread, the chances can't be just random. At this point I think we have enough reports from the likes of Factabulous of being hyperdicted frequently, and people like me who've made hundreds of jumps in the area with zero hyperdictions, that we can say with high confidence that our odds of hyperdiction are actually different. Which means there is some underlying property that affects the hyperdiction frequency a given commander experiences. It would be very interesting to know more about how that works.
Actually... some people getting no hyperdictions and others getting lots is more random than you might think :) dont get me started on how few UP spawns i got near ammonia worlds across days of waiting, while others got multiple within minutes.

MMO random has made people conflate, say, a 10% chance of an event with the event happening every ten times. Bit tangential and more complex than that... but hopefully you get my drift.

It's also worth noting that there was a bug a while back when these first happened where once you got hyperdicted... you got hyperdicted literally every jump attempt out of that system for up to an hour, unless you waited it out or closed/ reopened the game. I could speculate on the meaning of that.... but hey... like i said before, go forth and science. Just making sure people know there's a lot of info out there already :)
 
Actually... some people getting no hyperdictions and others getting lots is more random than you might think :) dont get me started on how few UP spawns i got near ammonia worlds across days of waiting, while others got multiple within minutes.

MMO random has made people conflate, say, a 10% chance of an event with the event happening every ten times. Bit tangential and more complex than that... but hopefully you get my drift.
So - I mean this in the nicest possible way - this ain't my first rodeo.

To throw out some numbers: according to my journal logs, I have made 162 jumps to "Witch Head Sector" named systems since the Thargoid attacks, and received zero hyperdictions. Supposing the probability of being hyperdicted on such a jump is constant over this time scale, I can refer to the binomial distribution and say with 99% confidence that the hyperdiction odds are less than 3.2%. Now Factabulous just filled up his Thargoid wake storage. The limit on those is 150 I believe, but let's suppose he already had a bunch and has only been hyperdicted, say, 20 times. Further suppose that he plays a lot more than me (I'm 100% confident of that one) and has made 300 jumps in the Witch Head Sector. The same calculation says that he can be 99% confident that the hyperdiction odds are greater than 3.5%. And so on ... this is what I mean when I say that the results in this forum thread, even though they don't have hard numbers attached, strongly suggest odds that vary from player to player.

Now you can imagine various permutations on the simple binomial assumption, and then you're into the realm of model construction. But a few considerations come to mind. First, one can imagine the players mentioning high hyperdiction rates are speaking up because they just happen to be experiencing a lucky run of hyperdictions. Relatedly, one can imagine that players' odds of hyperdiction fluctuates up and down, and some posters are just at the high-odds phase of their cycle. But this hypothesis runs into trouble because they did not pick the measurement period, the timing of the event was determined outside their control, so you would expect this to be an unbiased sample of their hyperdiction history. Moreover, these are not random players speaking up, who we would not have heard from except for experiencing an unusual number of hyperdiction events - these are prolific forum posters who would have been reporting their experiences regardless of their hyperdiction history.

Now obviously, without actual numbers I can't compute a χ2 statistic here or otherwise attempt rigorous hypothesis testing. But as I've tried to outline here, even the fragmentary data we have rather strongly suggest something more interesting than uniform randomness at work.
 
So - I mean this in the nicest possible way - this ain't my first rodeo.

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Don't disagree with any of that. However, I'd also flag the fact that FD's "randomness" is also notoriously clumpy.

Again, go forth and do what you want, not trying to stop you doing that. Just trying to make sure you've got all the info at your fingertips.

Something I didn't mention was that I have in the back of my head that the dev post I'm referring to (which is also hard to dig out, because of old-forum shenanigans) was also more definitively suggested that hyperdiction is just random... but I specifically didn't mention that earlier because I can't back that up. It's just my own take on it... YMMV.

So... good luck?
 
Something I didn't mention was that I have in the back of my head that the dev post I'm referring to (which is also hard to dig out, because of old-forum shenanigans) was also more definitively suggested that hyperdiction is just random... but I specifically didn't mention that earlier because I can't back that up. It's just my own take on it... YMMV.
Problem with the 'it's Random' is that you're saying all these 'no hyperdiction' people are all here on the curve:

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... and that seems unlikely.

The station repair is causing some fairly unique things to happen
  • Repetitive - we're all doing the same routes, so similar jump patterns are likely
  • And we're doing the same activities
  • Encourages similar ship builds - it's hauling - right;)
  • Same area of space
  • The number of hyperdictions (for those who get them) is way higher than I have seen anywhere else
  • And that area of space in infested with Thargoids, and we know that allows for Hyperdictions
And certainly for my CMDRs the number of Hyperdictions seem way above what I have seen before, but others don't see that. It seems to me a unique opportunity to investigate this - it may come to nothing (always has before!), but worth a try.

Even if all we get is another data-point saying 'yeah, we don't know why that happens' then it's something, but hopefully we can shoot down some theories while we learn that :)

You should come out - do some hauling - witness the hyperdiction craziness and you will see why this seems different. Or not, because it's all RNG after all 😝
 
Problem with the 'it's Random' is that you're saying all these 'no hyperdiction' people are all here on the curve:

View attachment 140239

... and that seems unlikely.
Yep. Don't worry, I understand all the implications of what I'm saying :)

I'm just avoiding writing 50 pages on the topic to summarize the last however many years of in-game experiences with hyperdictions, dev posts, edge-case reports, silent reports, various statistics, network connectivity issues and a bunch of other stuff which contribute to how things happen in the game, which boil down in my gut to say "It's a good chance it's random".

If you want the abridged version, I think it's something along the lines of "It's procedurally generated based on a set of global factors which ultimately boils down to a random chance, which produces naturally clumpy, seemingly deterministic but ultimately random results."

Or in even less words: I think it's basically a broken pokie machine.
 
Or in even less words: I think it's basically a broken pokie machine.
Yeah, been there too. Seriously is worth checking out though - because I think it's looking more like a whole series of differently broken machines :)

Hyperdiction rates:
  • Pleiades : around 1-2% of jumps historically (seems higher now, not done enough jumps to quantify)
  • Attacked systems : Normally once per session (often on first jump into system) then not again until a relog
  • WH hauling - variable, seems higher inside both WH / Pleiades endpoints
I know other parts of the game use a seed (I think it's per-instance?) to control spawns of NPCs etc, maybe some are stuck on a 'do not hyperdict' seed, but .... how.

And yes - I know I'm breaking my First Rule of ED : "If there is a choice between interesting or bugged - then it's bugged", but ...

140240
 
I had 4 or 5 hyperdictions yesterday alone, I can't haul on any day without having @ least two. That's in both my Cutter & 'Conda.

The longest time I went without a 'diction was when I FINALLY properly set up the 'anti-thargoid-neutralizer-thingy' on my ship.......but that didn't last long.

I'v probably only killed around 12-15 Thargoid Scouts, that was a couple of weeks ago, as I don't do pewpew with humans let alone bugs!

I just think it's random, a RNG mechanic (with the usual bugs) at play......Though I must say I'v been through this area a few times before this II, with no 'dictions in the past.

Added: Prior to doing this II & subsequent Station Repairing, I doubt I'v been 'dicted by Thargoids more than 4 times in the past:alien:

Added No.2: .....but then again, I'v not spent a long time in THEIR region before!
 
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It's quite wierd. I've never been hyperdicted even when I've done a lot of activity with Thargoids. And I play almost every day.
  • Scouts: yes, I killed a lot
  • Interceptors: I fought, but haven't won yet
  • Thargoid structures: yes, visited
  • Thargoid scans: yes, scanned some Interceptors - basic and detailed scans
  • Scanned by Thargoid probes: yes
  • I destroyed Thargod probes: yes, a few
  • Guardian modules on board: yes, almost always (FSD booster, shield booster)
  • Thargoid cargo in Thargoid space: yes, meta alloys
  • Number of jumps between systems in Thargoid space: hard to count, 100-150 maybe (Pleiades & Witch Head)
  • Number of jumps in Thargoid space with Thargoid cargo on board: about 30-40.
And I have never been hyperdicted.
 
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  • Scouts: yes, I killed a lot dito
  • Interceptors: killed several
  • Thargoid structures: yes, visited dito
  • Thargoid scans: yes, scanned some Interceptors - basic and detailed Scans dito
  • Scanned by Thargoid probes: yes elaborate?
  • I destroyed Thargod probes: yes, a few elaborate?
  • Guardian modules on board: yes, almost always (FSD booster, shield booster) dito
  • Thargoid cargo in Thargoid space: yes, meta alloys dito
  • Number of jumps beetween systems in Thargoid space: lots, as I did stuff for IDA
  • Number of jumps in Thargoid space with Thargoid cargo on board: some
Going with the above list, I've also never been hyperdicted

The thargoid probe thing is the only one that I have no idea about, I started with the Invasion of the goids, so the steps before that I never participated.
I believe only delivered sensor fragments to Palin, I guess I never had a unknown artifact in my cargo hold (not in the UA bombing business)
Are new CMDRs hyperdicted?
 
I can count on one hand the number of times I've been hyperdicted. It's always a cool experience. I think mostly around Maia.

Guardian stuff - check. FSDB on pretty much all my ships.
Thargoid stuff - only fragments in material storage. Otherwise, no.
 
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